Hamas has a lot of hostages now, including some high value ones from the IDF. They also severely humiliated the Israeli military and intelligence apparatus, reminding the world that Israel is not invulnerable and demonstrating that Hamas is a more formidable force than ever, which will help them get more international support. I think Hamas is in a strong position to secure concessions from Israel.
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The Netanyahu government famously traded over one thousand Palestinian prisoners, including some lifers, for a single live IDF soldier. There have also been significant trades just for captured remains. So, the precedent is that Israel will pay a big price to get its people back.
I suppose there is a non-zero chance that Israel decides to forsake the hostages, but I think the political cost would be too high. Also, that would really hurt IDF morale and discipline if there’s suddenly a new policy that they won’t negotiate your release if you get captured.
Something else to consider is that maybe Gaza kind of serves as a perpetual crisis that helps the Israeli hardliners maintain their grip on power. They might still want to keep it around.
You’d be quite wrong to think that.
Oh wow thank you for the detailed analysis.
