Probably not. It’s one of if not the most sophisticated air-defense on the planet. Without overwhelming it, attacks have little chance of any significant successes.
Just look at Ukraine, most attacks never reach their target and they are probably not equipped as well as Israel is (and also spread out much further). Even Russia’s “hypersonic” missiles are shot down by plain ol’ patriot systems on the regular.
So unless Iran pulls out some really fancy tricks, they will probably just hit low-value targets or maybe manage to overwhelm the defense in some limited areas (at the cost of a lot of drones). If this was to drag on however, it’ll start to hurt eventually…
Even Russia’s “hypersonic” missiles are shot down by plain ol’ patriot systems on the regular.
This is untrue. Patriot systems have only downed missiles that travel at hypersonic but slow down in final approach (Kinzhal). The US military recognized that these are not “true hypersonics” because of this. The Zircon missile has only been used 5 times in Ukraine, none of have been shot down. It is currently considered the fastest missile in the world with no known defense.
And even with that, the Kinzhal has been incredibly effective, as you can easily see based on the fact that Russia is hitting strategic targets in Western Ukraine including the capital.
