It’s a sobering line of thinking, for sure. I think it’s very optimistic for intelligence to believe that the USA can win a hot conflict with China now, let alone in the next few years. Chinese and Russian counter-intelligence have been on full display for the last few years and any Rumsfeldian worth their salt should be able to grasp that the unknown unknowns are getting larger, more numerous, and more dangerous.

The USA will not be able to decouple from China in real terms, but your reasoning that they will maximize the decoupling they are capable of in the runup to a conflict rings true. It is likely they are willing to sacrifice Taiwan to bring Chinese capabilities into the light so they can get the Intel they are sorely lacking. I doubt, however, that such an adventure will yield sufficient evidence for an assault on China’s mainland.

That leads me to think that if the US does, in fact, go for it, it’s going to be strategic nukes and betting against MAD. The only hope there is missile defense coupled with “conscientious objectors” in the US military refusing orders.

More than likely, the USA popping off in Taiwan will result in a frozen conflict that lasts for 5 years or more.